Federal Energy Regulatory Commission report issued November 7, 2023.
Link to report: https://www.ferc.gov/media/winter-storm-elliott-report-inquiry-bulk-power-system-operations-during-december-2022
Inquiry into Bulk-Power System Operations During December 2022 Winter Storm Elliott
October 2023
FERC, NERC and Regional Entity Staff Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This report describes how the extreme cold weather event occurring between December 21 and 26, 2022 (Winter Storm Elliott) impacted the reliability of the Bulk Electric System (“BES” or colloquially known as the grid) and the supporting natural gas infrastructure in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection1 (“the Event”).2 During the Event, 1,702 individual BES3 generating units in the Eastern Interconnection experienced 3,565 unplanned outages, derates, or failures to start.4 Each individual unit could, and often did, have multiple outages from the same ordifferent causes. At the worst point of the Event, therewere 90,500 MW of coincident unplanned generating unit outages, derates and failures to start (meaning they all occurred at the same time). Including generation that was already out of service,5 a total of over 127,000 MW of generation was unavailable, representing 18 percent of the U.S. portion of the anticipated resources in the Eastern Interconnection.
The Event was the fifth in the past 11 years in which unplanned cold weather-related generation outages jeopardized grid reliability.6 Several Balancing Authorities (BAs) (grid operators that balance demand and electric energy) in the southeast U.S. needed to shed firm loadduring the Event to maintain system reliability, which in total (at different points in time) exceeded 5,400 MW.This was the largest controlled firm load shed recordedin the history of the Eastern Interconnection. Just one year before, in 2021, the Winter Storm Uri event in Texas and the South Central U.S. saw the largest controlled firm load shed event in U.S. history, with over 20,000MW of firm load shed (20,000 MW in ERCOT alone). Inthat event, more than 4.5 million people lost power in Texas, and some went without power for as long as four days, while exposed to below freezing temperatures for as long as six days. Estimates of those who died during that event, primarily 6 In February 2011, an arctic cold front impacted the southwest U.S. and resulted in 29,700 MW of generation outages, natural gas facility outages, and emergency power grid conditions with need for firm customer load shed. Report on Outages and Curtailments During the Southwest ColdWeather Event of February 1-5, 2011: Causes and Recommendations (Aug. 2011), Report on outages and curtailments during the Southwest cold weather event (ferc.gov) (“2011 Report”). In January 2014, a polar vortex affected Texas, central and eastern U.S., triggering 19,500 MW ofgeneration outages, and natural gas availability issues resulting in emergency conditions including voluntary load management. NERC “Polar Vortex Review” (Sept. 2014), https://www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/January%202014%20Polar%20Vortex%20Review/Polar_Vortex_Review_29_Sept_2014_Final.pdf (“Polar Vortex Review”). In January 2018, an arctic high-pressure system and below average temperatures in the SouthCentral U.S. resulted in 15,800 MW of generation outages and the need for voluntary load management emergency measures. South Central United States Cold Weather Bulk Electric Systems Event of January 17, 2018 (July 2019), https://www.ferc.gov/sites/default/files/2020-07/SouthCentralUnitedStatesColdWeatherBulkElectricSystemEventofJanuary17-2018.pdf (“2018 Report”). Finally, in February 2021, extreme cold weather and freezing precipitation in Texas and the South Central U.S. resulted in generating outages of over 60,000 MW and over 20,000 MW of firm load shed. The February 2021 Cold Weather Outages in Texas and the South Central United States | FERC, NERC and Regional Entity StaffReport (Nov. 2021), The February 2021 Cold Weather Outages in Texas and the South Central United States | FERC, NERC and Regional Entity StaffReport | Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (“2021 Report”). 7 Recent “excess death” analyses of deaths in Texas during the 2021 event range as high as 800. Amber Weber & Mose Buchele , Texas has an official death count from the 2021 blackout. The true toll may never be known., Texas Standard (Aug. 15, 2022),Texas has an official death count from the2021 blackout. The true toll may never be known. | Texas Standard.8 Garrett Golding et al., Cost of Texas’ 2021 Deep Freeze Justifies Weatherization, Dallas Fed. Economics (Apr. 15, 2021), https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2021/0415. from causes connected to the power outages including hypothermia, carbon monoxide poisoning, and medical conditions exacerbated by freezing conditions, range from over 200 to over 800.7 The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas estimated the direct and indirect losses to the Texas economy from that event to be between $80 and $130 billion.8The quantity of firm load shed during Winter Storm Elliottwas not as large as in the Winter Storm Uri event, but it is especially disconcerting that it happened in the Eastern Interconnection which normally has ample generation and transmission ties to other grid operators that allow them to import and export power. And yet, for reasons described more fully in Section IV of the Report, electricgrid operators were faced with a generation capacity shortage that resulted in 5,400 MW of firm load shed.
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